Goaltending is the most volatile and most important position in professional hockey. A hot goalie can carry a mediocre team to the Stanley Cup (see: 2012 Kings, 2019 Blues). A struggling goalie can sink a Cup contender. Here is the Stars' goaltending situation.
The starter:
- 2025-26 stats: 38 games, .914 save percentage, 2.61 GAA
- His hot streak over the last 30 games (.918 SV%) has been the key to the playoff push
- Expected Goals Saved Above Average (GSAx) per MoneyPuck: +6.8 (16th in NHL)
- Source: Hockey Reference, MoneyPuck
What the advanced stats say: GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) is the best metric for evaluating goaltenders because it adjusts for shot quality. A goalie facing 30 high-danger shots will have a lower raw save percentage than one facing 30 low-danger shots, but GSAx accounts for this.
The Stars starter at +6.8 GSAx means he has saved approximately 7 more goals than an average goaltender would have given the same shot quality. That is solid but not elite. Elite is +15 or higher.
The backup:
- 2025-26 stats: 26 games, .901 save percentage, 3.15 GAA
- GSAx: -3.2 (below average)
- The backup has been a liability. In games he starts, the Stars are 10-11-5. In games the starter plays, they are 32-14-2.
Playoff implications: In the NHL playoffs, the starting goalie typically plays every game unless he is struggling. The Stars need their starter to maintain his current form (.916+) through the entire playoff run. If he gets injured or struggles, the backup's numbers suggest the Stars would be in serious trouble.
Historical context: The Stars have had elite goaltending in their most successful seasons:
- 1999 Cup: Belfour, .930 playoff SV%
- 2020 Cup Final run: Khudobin, .917 playoff SV% Winning in the playoffs requires above-average goaltending. There is no workaround.
Sources:
- Hockey Reference — traditional goaltending stats
- MoneyPuck — GSAx and expected goals data
- Natural Stat Trick — shot quality adjustments