Goaltending is the most volatile and most important position in professional hockey. A hot goalie can carry a mediocre team to the Stanley Cup (see: 2012 Kings, 2019 Blues). A struggling goalie can sink a Cup contender. Here is the Stars' goaltending situation.
The starter:
- 2025-26 stats: 38 games, .914 save percentage, 2.61 GAA
- His hot streak over the last 30 games (.918 SV%) has been the key to the playoff push
- Expected Goals Saved Above Average (GSAx) per MoneyPuck: +6.8 (16th in NHL)
- Source: Hockey Reference, MoneyPuck
What the advanced stats say: GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) is the best metric for evaluating goaltenders because it adjusts for shot quality. A goalie facing 30 high-danger shots will have a lower raw save percentage than one facing 30 low-danger shots, but GSAx accounts for this.
The Stars starter at +6.8 GSAx means he has saved approximately 7 more goals than an average goaltender would have given the same shot quality. That is solid but not elite. Elite is +15 or higher.
The backup:
- 2025-26 stats: 26 games, .901 save percentage, 3.15 GAA
- GSAx: -3.2 (below average)
- The backup has been a liability. In games he starts, the Stars are 10-11-5. In games the starter plays, they are 32-14-2.
Playoff implications: In the NHL playoffs, the starting goalie typically plays every game unless he is struggling. The Stars need their starter to maintain his current form (.916+) through the entire playoff run. If he gets injured or struggles, the backup's numbers suggest the Stars would be in serious trouble.
Historical context: The Stars have had elite goaltending in their most successful seasons:
- 1999 Cup: Belfour, .930 playoff SV%
- 2020 Cup Final run: Khudobin, .917 playoff SV% Winning in the playoffs requires above-average goaltending. There is no workaround.
Sources:
- Hockey Reference — traditional goaltending stats
- MoneyPuck — GSAx and expected goals data
- Natural Stat Trick — shot quality adjustments
Goaltending is THE position in hockey playoffs. Nothing else matters if your goalie is not stopping pucks. The starter needs to be .916 or better for us to have a chance in a 7-game series.