You hear this a lot on Rowlett Facebook groups: "Rowlett is the next Frisco." Let's look at the actual numbers and see if the comparison holds up.
Population growth (2016-2026):
- Frisco: 154,000 → 240,000 (+56%)
- Rowlett: 60,000 → 68,000 (+13%)
Not even close on raw population growth. Frisco had massive undeveloped land to the north. Rowlett is geographically constrained by Lake Ray Hubbard on the south and east, and by Garland and Sachse on the north and west.
Median home price change (2016-2026):
- Frisco: $330K → $550K (+67%)
- Rowlett: $220K → $385K (+75%)
Rowlett actually outpaced Frisco on percentage home price growth. Starting from a lower base helps, but the appreciation has been strong.
Commercial development:
- Frisco: $5 Billion Mile, PGA HQ, Universal Studios theme park under construction, multiple corporate relocations
- Rowlett: Sapphire Bay (in progress), Highway 66 corridor retail growth, downtown revitalization plan
Frisco is playing in a completely different league on commercial development. But Rowlett has something Frisco doesn't — a 22,000-acre lake.
School district:
- Frisco ISD: consistently rated among the best in Texas, massive draw for families
- Rowlett: split between Garland ISD (mixed ratings) and Rockwall ISD (excellent ratings). The GISD side is a harder sell for families prioritizing schools.
The honest comparison: Rowlett is NOT becoming the next Frisco. Different geography, different scale, different economic engine. But Rowlett IS becoming a much better version of itself. The lake, PGBT access, DART, Sapphire Bay, the downtown plan — these give Rowlett a unique identity that Frisco doesn't have. Rowlett's future isn't as a corporate suburb. It's as a lakeside city with character.
The better comparison might be Rockwall — similar size, lake access, strong appreciation, growing but not exploding. Rowlett has DART and Sapphire Bay as differentiators.
Sources:
- US Census Bureau — population estimates 2016-2025
- Zillow Research — median home prices by city
- City of Frisco and City of Rowlett economic development reports
- TEA — school district ratings
I'd rather live in a city with a lake and a DART station than a city with a theme park and toll roads to everywhere. Different priorities for different people.