The NBA needs to address the tanking epidemic: Here are 5 realistic solutions

Multiple NBA teams openly tank for draft picks every season. The lottery reform was supposed to fix this. It has not.

The problem (Source: NBA standings, Tank-a-thon):

• In any given season, 5-8 teams are effectively eliminated from contention by January.
• These teams then rest healthy veterans, play young players heavy minutes regardless of performance, and lose games on purpose.
• The 2023-24 season had multiple teams on pace for historically bad records.

Why the current system fails:

• The NBA flattened lottery odds in 2019 (worst record no longer guaranteed number 1 pick). This was supposed to reduce the incentive to tank.
• But teams still tank because even reduced odds are better than no odds. The worst team still has the highest probability of a top-4 pick.

5 realistic solutions:

1. The Wheel. Each team is assigned a draft slot on a rotating wheel. You know years in advance what pick you will have. Removes ALL incentive to lose. Source: Originally proposed by Zach Lowe at ESPN.

2. Lottery odds based on record AFTER elimination from playoff contention. Once you are mathematically eliminated, your record from that point determines lottery odds. Win games after elimination and you get better odds.

3. Tournament for the number 1 pick. The bottom 8 teams play a single-elimination tournament for the top overall pick. Win-or-go-home format means every game matters.

4. Relegation. Borrow from European soccer. The worst 2 NBA teams swap with the best 2 G League teams. Extreme, but it eliminates tanking permanently because the financial consequences of relegation are catastrophic.

5. Salary cap penalties. Teams that finish in the bottom 5 for consecutive seasons face salary cap restrictions that prevent hoarding future assets while losing.

Sources:

• NBA.com — lottery odds and format
• ESPN (Zach Lowe) — wheel proposal
• European soccer — relegation model
• Basketball Reference — historical tanking analysis