For the last three seasons, the Mavericks have been a regular season contender who underperforms expectations in the playoffs (2024 Finals run excepted). Let us examine why.
Regular season vs. playoff offensive ratings (source: Basketball Reference):
- 2023-24: Regular 117.2 -> Playoff 114.8 (drop of 2.4)
- 2024-25: Regular 118.1 -> Playoff 112.3 (drop of 5.8)
- 2025-26: Regular 119.4 -> Playoff TBD
Why playoff offense drops:
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Luka face-guarding: In the regular season, most teams play standard pick-and-roll coverage against Luka. In the playoffs, teams devote specific defensive schemes to him — face-guarding, aggressive trapping at half court, switching everything. His usage stays the same but efficiency drops because every possession is a battle.
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Pace slows: The Mavs play at the 8th-fastest pace in the regular season. Playoff games slow down by 3-4 possessions per game on average across the league. Dallas's transition offense (where they are elite) becomes less impactful.
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Three-point regression: Dallas shoots 38.2% from three in the regular season. Playoff opponents close out harder, contest better, and the pressure affects shooters. Historical data shows team three-point shooting drops 1-2% in the playoffs league-wide.
The defensive factor: Interestingly, the Mavs' defensive rating actually improves in the playoffs (from 114.1 to 112.8 in 2025). The effort level increases when every possession matters. This suggests the regular season defensive issues are partially effort-based rather than purely talent-based.
The 2024 exception: The 2024 Finals run was the outlier. The offense maintained efficiency because the role players shot well and the defense peaked at the right time. Replicating that requires health, shooting luck, and matchup advantages.
Sources:
- Basketball Reference — regular season and playoff splits
- Cleaning the Glass — pace and efficiency data
- NBA.com — tracking stats
Face-guarding Luka is the league blueprint now. Every team does it. The Mavs need a secondary creator who can punish teams for devoting that much attention to Luka. That is why Kyrie is critical.