Every week a new master-planned community breaks ground north of Frisco. Here's the data on whether it's smart to buy there.
The growth:
- Celina population: ~35,000 (was 6,000 in 2015)
- Prosper population: ~40,000 (was 10,000 in 2015)
- Anna population: ~25,000 (was 8,000 in 2015)
- Projected 2030: All three expected to double again
Home prices (new construction, March 2026):
- Celina: $380-550K (3-4 bed)
- Prosper: $480-700K (3-4 bed)
- Anna: $320-450K (3-4 bed)
The bull case:
- New homes, new schools, new roads
- Prosper ISD is climbing Niche rankings fast (now A)
- Dallas North Tollway extension will eventually reach Celina
- PGA Frisco resort bringing commercial development north
The bear case:
- Commute to Dallas: 45-75 min depending on traffic
- Infrastructure lags development (roads are overwhelmed)
- Property taxes are HIGH (new homes = no exemptions yet + MUD/PID districts add 0.5-1% on top)
- If the market corrects, new-build suburbs get hit hardest
- MUD (Municipal Utility District) taxes can add $3,000-6,000/year
MUD tax warning: Many new developments in Celina and Anna are in MUD districts. This means your property tax could be 2.8-3.2% instead of the standard 2.1-2.2%. On a $450K home, that's an extra $3,000-4,500/year. Ask about MUD before you buy.
Sources:
- U.S. Census Bureau — population estimates
- Zillow / Realtor.com — new construction pricing
- Collin County CAD — MUD district maps
- Prosper ISD — Niche.com ratings
- NCTCOG — transportation planning documents
Anyone else deal with this?
Anna is the sleeper play for affordability. $320K for a new build, decent schools, and it'll benefit from all the Collin County growth.