Let's look at the actual data for DFW housing in Q1 2026.
Key metrics (Jan-Mar 2026):
- Median home price: $385,000 (up 3.8% YOY)
- Average days on market: 28 (down from 34 in Q1 2025)
- Months of inventory: 2.1 (balanced market = 4-6 months)
- Mortgage rate (30yr fixed): ~6.4% (Freddie Mac)
- New listings: down 8% YOY
What this means:
- Still a seller's market but cooling compared to 2021-2023 insanity
- Multiple offers are common on well-priced homes under $400K
- Homes over $600K are sitting longer (35+ days)
- New construction in Frisco/McKinney/Celina is adding supply but not fast enough
Price by area:
- Dallas proper: $410K median (+4.1% YOY)
- Fort Worth: $340K median (+3.2% YOY)
- Plano: $475K median (+2.9% YOY)
- Frisco: $525K median (+5.1% YOY)
- McKinney: $445K median (+4.4% YOY)
- Arlington: $310K median (+2.1% YOY)
Prediction: Rates staying in the 6% range through 2026 means demand stays moderate. Don't expect a crash, but don't expect 2021 appreciation either. 3-5% annual appreciation is the new normal.
Sources:
- Zillow — DFW home value index
- Freddie Mac — mortgage rate data
- North Texas Real Estate Information Systems (NTREIS) — MLS data
- Redfin — market competitiveness score
- Texas A&M Real Estate Center — quarterly market reports
Frisco at 5.1% YOY appreciation is nuts. A $525K house will be $551K next year at that rate. When does it stop?