The Cowboys have the 14th pick in the 2027 draft (projected). Here is the case for trading down.
The draft value chart: Pick 14 is worth approximately 1,100 points on the traditional Jimmy Johnson trade value chart. Trading back to picks 22-25 could net an additional 2nd-round pick while still landing a quality player.
Source: The original Jimmy Johnson trade value chart, widely published on Pro Football Reference.
Historical hit rates by pick position (source: PFF):
- Picks 1-10: 52% chance of becoming a quality starter (PFF grade 70+)
- Picks 11-20: 41% chance
- Picks 21-32: 36% chance
The drop-off from pick 14 to pick 23 is only about 5 percentage points. But the added second-round pick gives you two chances instead of one.
The Cowboys' specific situation: Dallas has needs at multiple positions. A single first-round pick addresses one need. Trading back and acquiring an extra Day 2 pick lets you address two needs — say, a guard at the end of round 1 and a safety in round 2.
Counter-argument: If there is a blue-chip prospect available at 14 — a true difference-maker — you take him. Trading back only makes sense when the board falls such that your top targets are gone.
The decision framework: Trade back IF: The top-rated players at your positions of need are gone by pick 14. Stay put IF: A top-15 caliber player on your board falls to you.
Sources:
- Pro Football Reference — trade value chart
- PFF — historical draft hit rates by pick position
- Over The Cap — draft pick salary implications
The math supports trading back in most scenarios. Two shots at quality starters is better than one shot at a slightly better starter. The Cowboys need roster depth, not one more star.