The 2026 Cowboys schedule is out. Let us break it down section by section.
The brutal stretch (Weeks 4-8):
- Week 4: at Eagles
- Week 5: vs. 49ers
- Week 6: at Bills
- Week 7: vs. Ravens
- Week 8: Bye
Four consecutive games against projected playoff teams. The Cowboys need to survive this stretch at 2-2 minimum to keep the season alive. Going 1-3 or 0-4 here effectively ends playoff hopes by Halloween.
The soft middle (Weeks 9-13):
- Week 9: vs. Panthers
- Week 10: at Giants
- Week 11: vs. Commanders
- Week 12: at Titans
- Week 13: vs. Cardinals
This is where the Cowboys need to bank wins. All five opponents had losing records in 2025. Going 4-1 or 5-0 is the expectation.
The closing stretch (Weeks 14-18):
- Divisional opponents and a mix of contenders. The Week 17 Eagles rematch could decide the NFC East.
My prediction: 10-7
- Win the games they should win in the soft middle
- Split the tough stretch 2-2
- Go 2-2 down the stretch
- That puts them at 10-7, which is likely a wild card spot
Key stat to watch: The Cowboys' record in one-score games was 3-5 in 2025. If that flips to even 5-3, they go from 8-9 to 10-7 without dramatically improving the roster. Close games are often about luck as much as talent.
Sources:
- NFL schedule release — dallascowboys.com
- Pro Football Reference — 2025 records for all opponents
- FiveThirtyEight — strength of schedule projections