Every Cowboys loss triggers the same discourse. Dak is overpaid. Dak cannot win big games. Dak is not elite. Let us look at the actual data.
Career stats through 2025 (source: Pro Football Reference):
- 68.1% completion rate (8th among active QBs with 5+ years)
- 4:1 TD-to-INT ratio in his career
- 97.3 career passer rating (11th all-time among qualifying QBs)
- 36 game-winning drives (tied for 7th among active QBs)
Advanced metrics:
- EPA per play since 2020: 0.112, ranking 9th among all QBs with 500+ dropbacks. Source: rbsdm.com.
- CPOE (completion percentage over expected) of +2.1%, meaning he consistently beats the expected completion rate. Source: Next Gen Stats.
- PFF passing grade of 82.7 since 2020, 10th among qualifying QBs.
The "big game" narrative: Dak's playoff record is 2-5. That is not great. But context matters. In those 5 losses, the Cowboys defense allowed an average of 29.4 points per game. The offensive line allowed a pressure rate of 41% in playoff games versus 32% in the regular season.
Dak played well in several of those losses. The 2023 wild card loss to Green Bay, he threw for 403 yards and 3 TDs. The team lost because the defense gave up 48 points.
Where the criticism is valid: Dak holds the ball too long under pressure. His sack rate when blitzed is 12.3%, above the league average of 8.7% per PFF. He needs to get the ball out faster or accept throwaway situations.
Bottom line: Top 10. Not top 5. The contract makes people evaluate him against Mahomes when the comparison should be against the Kirk Cousins tier — and Dak is clearly better than that group.
Sources:
- Pro Football Reference — career stats
- PFF — passing grades, pressure metrics
- rbsdm.com — EPA data
- Next Gen Stats — CPOE
The EPA data supports this but the eye test does not always. There are moments where Dak looks lost in the pocket and no stat captures that feeling.