In 2021, Baylor won the Big 12 Championship under Dave Aranda. The program looked like it had found its long-term answer after the Art Briles scandal. Then it unraveled.
The peak (2021):
- 12-2 record. Big 12 Champions. Sugar Bowl victory.
- Defense was elite under Aranda's scheme. Top-15 nationally in scoring defense. Source: NCAA statistics.
- The culture rebuild from the Briles scandal felt complete. Baylor was respected again.
The decline (2022-2024):
- 6-7 in 2022. The drop-off was immediate and shocking.
- Quarterback instability. Multiple starters, none who could run the offense consistently.
- Transfer portal losses. Key players left for bigger programs.
- Recruiting class rankings dropped. The Big 12 without Texas and Oklahoma should have been an opportunity. Instead, Baylor fell behind Kansas, Kansas State, and UCF in the pecking order.
What went wrong:
- Offensive coordinator instability. Multiple OC changes disrupted continuity.
- NIL lag. Baylor was slow to adapt to the NIL landscape. Waco does not have the booster infrastructure of Austin or College Station.
- Aranda's personality. Brilliant defensive mind but not a natural CEO or recruiter. The introversion that makes him a great coordinator may have limited him as a head coach.
The broader lesson: The gap between Big 12 champion and irrelevant can close in 2 seasons in the modern transfer portal era. Roster turnover is so fast that one bad recruiting cycle cascades.
Sources:
- NCAA — team statistical rankings
- 247Sports — recruiting data
- Sports Reference — Baylor results
- Waco Tribune-Herald — program coverage