Arsenal have been the most improved team in the Premier League over the past three seasons under Mikel Arteta. But have they actually closed the gap on Pep Guardiola's Manchester City?
The numbers (Source: Premier League official stats, FBref):
- Arsenal's points total increased from 69 in 2022-23 to competitive totals in subsequent seasons
- Expected goals (xG) difference: Arsenal's defensive xG against is elite, consistently among the best in Europe
- Set piece goals: Arsenal lead the league in goals from set pieces. This is by design -- Arteta hired a dedicated set piece coach.
Where Arsenal have improved:
- Defensive structure. Arsenal concede the fewest big chances in the league.
- Midfield control. Declan Rice transformed their ability to control games.
- Depth. The squad rotation options have improved significantly.
Where the gap remains:
- Creativity in the final third. Arsenal's open-play chance creation is below City's level. Source: FBref creative actions data.
- Composure in big moments. Multiple dropped points from winning positions in key matches.
- Striker production. The lack of a 20+ goal-per-season striker remains the obvious weakness.
The verdict: Arsenal are a legitimate title contender every season now. That is a massive shift from where they were 4 years ago. But until they actually lift the trophy, City remain the standard.
Sources:
- Premier League — official statistics
- FBref — advanced metrics
- The Athletic — tactical analysis