The NBA's 3-point revolution has gone too far: A statistical argument for change

The NBA has become a 3-point shooting league to the point where it is hurting the product. Here is the data.

The trend (Source: Basketball Reference, NBA.com):

In the 2003-04 season, teams averaged approximately 16 three-point attempts per game.
In the 2023-24 season, teams averaged approximately 35 three-point attempts per game.
That is a 120% increase in 20 years.
The midrange game has been mathematically eliminated. Expected value analysis shows that a 40% 3-pointer (1.2 points per shot) is worth more than a 50% midrange (1.0 points per shot).

Why this is a problem:

Homogeneity. Every team plays the same way: drive and kick for 3s, or shoot 3s off the dribble. The stylistic diversity that made the NBA interesting (Shaq's post game, Nash's 7-seconds-or-less, the Pistons' grind) has been replaced by one optimal strategy.
Shot diet monotony. Fans watch the same types of shots over and over. The mid-range artistry of Kobe, MJ, and Dirk is being coached out of the game.
Variance. 3-point shooting is inherently streaky. Games are decided by which team happens to get hot from three, not by sustained execution. This increases randomness in outcomes.

The counterargument:

NBA scoring is at an all-time high. Fans say they want scoring.
Players like Steph Curry have made 3-point shooting an art form. The logo 3 is an iconic shot.
Analytics say the 3 is the optimal shot. You cannot argue with math.

Proposed changes:

Sources:

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