We are a few months into 2026 and the GOTY race is already heating up. Here are my predictions based on what has released and what is coming.
Already released contenders:
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GTA 6 (if it maintains quality through the full story) — Rockstar makes games that define generations. If the back half is as strong as the first 40 hours, this wins in a landslide.
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Metroid Prime 4 (Nintendo Switch 2 launch title) — Retro Studios took over a decade but early reviews suggest it was worth the wait. The return to first-person exploration with modern hardware is compelling.
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Ghost of Tsushima 2 (PS5 exclusive) — Sucker Punch doubling down on the samurai open world. The first game was a masterpiece. More of the same with improvements is enough.
Coming later this year:
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Fable (Xbox/PC) — Playground Games building a modern Fable with British humor and open-world RPG systems. High ceiling, risky execution.
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Death Stranding 2 (PS5) — Kojima doing Kojima things. The trailers are incomprehensible. The final product will be either a masterpiece or a beautiful mess. No in-between.
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Pokemon Legends: Z-A (Switch 2) — If Game Freak actually delivers on the Legends: Arceus formula with better performance, this could surprise.
My prediction: GTA 6 wins GOTY unless it completely falls apart in the second half. Rockstar has not made a game below a 95 Metacritic since 2013. The track record is too strong.
Sources: Metacritic, The Game Awards history, publisher release schedules, early review aggregates
GTA 6 winning GOTY feels inevitable unless something goes catastrophically wrong. Rockstar games are once-a-decade events. The cultural impact alone wins it.